We Don't Know What We Don't Know

1 December 2021 

Good evening my fellow Toastmasters and guests. 

A few days before FMCO, Elaine and I were getting ready to play golf when Boon approached us and asked whether he could join us. We were hoping to have a quiet game just the two of us but not wanting to look like a snob, we agreed. And what a round we had! It turns out, Boon is an advertising man so he can definitely talk! But that was not all.  He is convinced that his advertising skill is the best in Malaysia and that he could sell anything, even the free fresh air. My friend Elaine is also in advertising and has just published a researched article on Top 10 advertising trend in Asia and she was not buying anything. In fact she was so annoyed that I could hear her mutter under her breath, “what a load of bollocks!” I just chuckled.

Apparently Boon is not a special case. In fact I am sure over this one year, we all have at least one friend who probably did a few Google searches and suddenly talk about COVID vaccine as if they are experts in immunology. Oh yes….I can see a few heads nodding! This seemingly ego blinding behaviour has peeked the interest of two psychologists - David Dunning and Justin Kruger. In 1999, they did a study where participants were tested on their abilities in humour, logic and grammar. After the test, instead of getting the result, they were then asked to evaluate their own performance. 

SHARE SCREEN 

SLIDE 1

Let me share with you my screen so that you can see the result of the study. The  green line is the actual test result for each participant. So this represents what they actually know. The blue line is the self evaluation of their performance. This is what they think they know. 

SLIDE 2

Let me explain in a bit more detail about this graph. 

Look at the gap here in the Bottom Quartile CLICK - these are the result for the poorest performers. What they THINK they know (blue dot) is about 40% higher than what they actually know. They have the most inflated view of their ability! CLICK This is the over-confidence that Elaine and I had to endure during our golf game! CLICK

For those who are in the 2nd and 3rd quartiles, CLICK what they think they know is still higher than what they actually know but now the gap is smaller. This is because the more you learn the more you will realise that there is so much more that you don’t know. So it tends to bring down the confidence level a notch and it is safe to say that these people will not be as cocky!

At the end of the spectrum CLICK, we have a different set of problem that looks like a weird paradoxical anti-confidence but for today we are only going to focus on this section here! CLICK 

People in this box suffer a double curse. Not only they did not know much about the subject matter but they don’t even know that they don’t know!

This cognitive bias is known as Dunning Kruger Effect CLICK, named after the two psychologists who did the above study. 

UNSHARE SCREEN 

Over the weekend, I was talking to Kaarthi and when he found out that I was I was going to talk about Dunning Kruger Effect, he advised me to give some real life example so that I can connect better with the audience. 

I then told him “How am I going to give real life example”? I am NOT one of them, or at least I hope I am NOT”.  

But the truth of the matter is that Dunning Kruger Effect is not about dumb people. It can affect people of all stripes and intellect because let’s face it. We all have pockets of incompetence that we don’t recognise!

Worrying isn’t it? Because if you are like me who thinks that we are not one of them, think again because the first rule to being a member to this Dunning Kruger Club is that we don’t even know that we are a member because we don’t know what we don’t know!

So what can we do to avoid being a permanent member to this not so exclusive Dunning Kruger Club? 

Firstly, we definitely should keep learning so that eventually what we THINK we know will match with what we ACTUALLY know. Secondly, let us try not to sound so pompous no matter how much you know of the subject matter! Hopefully also this will help us keep our  dwindling friends! 

Finally, be open to constructive criticism and feedback. So Rosli, my evaluator for tonight, I am ready to receive your  honest opinion of my speech! Bring it on! 

Back to you Toastmasters of the Evening.